The News International, well-known English newspaper, has made an attempt to delineate Pakistan Army Chief, General Asim Munir’s doctrine following his recent visit to Washington. The analysis relies heavily on a recent Middle East Institute analysis on the Army Chief’s visit to the US.
Shifting Gears: General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Army Chief, charts a new direction for foreign policy. He wants to move away from the “either US or China” dilemma and toward a strategy more focused on Pakistan’s economic well-being.
Hedging and Independence: Munir emphasizes “hedging” – avoiding entanglements in global power struggles. He believes economic self-reliance is key to safeguarding sovereignty and reducing dependence on major powers. Building a robust economy, he stresses, requires Pakistanis to shed the “beggar’s bowl” mentality.
Challenges and Priorities: Munir’s vision faces several hurdles. Pakistan’s image is tarnished by domestic issues, shaky democracy, and regional security concerns. His first priority: to improve Pakistan’s global standing through internal reforms and a proactive defense strategy.
Regional Play: Munir takes a firm stance on India and Afghanistan. He warns of retaliation against Indian aggression and critiques the Afghan Taliban for harboring anti-Pakistan elements. The ongoing deportation of Afghans highlights his tough stance.
Neutral Middle Power: Munir aspires to make Pakistan a neutral middle power, navigating between US and China without getting caught in the crossfire. However, achieving true neutrality requires economic independence, a long way off for Pakistan, currently reliant on external aid.
Geoeconomics over Geopolitics: Munir prioritizes geoeconomics over traditional power politics. He seeks partnerships with friendly nations to boost investment and development. The “Special Investment Facilitation Council” (SIFC) exemplifies this shift.
Domestic Reforms: To revitalize the economy, Munir launched crackdowns on corruption, smuggling, and illegal activities. He presents himself as a guarantor of stability and the main point of contact for the international community.
Security Strategy: Munir has intensified counterterrorism operations and strengthened military cooperation with regional and global partners. The “Eternal Brotherhood-II” exercise showcases his two-pronged approach: tackling Afghan terror threats and countering Indian influence.
Uncertainties and Questions: Can Munir effectively improve Pakistan’s image and reputation? Can he turn Pakistan into a stabilizing regional player? Achieving neutral middle power status seems distant without greater economic autonomy. Gulf investments, crucial for the SIFC, remain elusive.
Soft Power Challenge: The biggest challenge might be integrating “soft power” with traditional “hard power.” Balancing security needs with economic considerations requires departing from old military strategies and embracing new modes of advancing national interests. Munir’s success hinges on how he navigates this complex terrain.
Key Questions: How will Munir balance economic growth with current dependence? Will his geoeconomic strategy lead to another debt trap? How will he address resource exploitation and avoid becoming a rentier state? Can he navigate tense relations with India and Afghanistan while avoiding entanglement in US-China rivalry? Ultimately, Munir’s success will depend on bridging the gap between civilian and military leadership to forge a cohesive and effective foreign policy.
December 18,2023
Source: The News International