The key factor hindering Pakistan’s second strike capability is its lack of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). While Pakistan has developed the Babar-3 submarine-launched cruise missile, its reliance on modified conventional submarines for carrying the missile raises concerns about their survival, low noise, and ability to go unnoticed, which could undermine the credibility of its second-strike capability.
Compared to other countries, Pakistan’s second strike capability is limited by the absence of advanced submarine technology, strong command and control systems, and the crucial need to have a nuclear missile submarine for a credible second strike capability. This puts Pakistan at a disadvantage compared to countries that have developed advanced nuclear capabilities, including a variety of delivery systems, advanced command and control infrastructure, and robust nuclear triads.
The lack of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) also impacts the comparison with other countries. While countries like India have developed SSBNs, giving them assured second-strike capability and improved survivability, Pakistan’s strategic depth and limited land area have been highlighted as factors that make the navy’s nuclear technology essential to its survival, especially against possible first strikes.
The technological competition between Indian Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) and Pakistani Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) programs reflects a broader arms race and strategic rivalry in the region. Pakistan’s development of MIRVs as a response to India’s BMD system is a strategic dynamic that is impacting the balance of power and stability between the two nuclear neighbours. However, Pakistan’s second-strike capability remains a concern, as it lacks a credible nuclear-powered submarine capability to ensure a reliable second-strike option.
June 11, 2024
Source: Pakistan Tody