No Good Choices: The Counterterrorism Dilemmas in Afghanistan and Pakistan

ASFANDYAR MIR
CTC Sentinel
OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2023, VOLUME 16, ISSUE 10

abstract

Two years into Taliban rule, what are the key choices and tradeoffs for U.S. counterterrorism strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan? Policymakers face the dilemma that a critical subset of counterterrorism concerns related to Taliban-allied terrorist groups may not be addressed if the Taliban become stronger; however, the terrorism threat will likely increase under a weaker Taliban regime. Concessions to the Taliban are unlikely to persuade the Taliban to curtail terrorists any more than they will of their own volition. If the Taliban do not sufficiently contain threats, the primary tool will be over-the-horizon military action. However, the current over-the-horizon approach is under-resourced and lacks a clear logic for mitigating threats. Three alternative coercive postures are possible: 1) stepped-up monitoring and occasional targeting to dissuade terrorist activities 2) a denial campaign against terrorist capabilities or 3) punishment threats to Taliban in case of terrorism against U.S. interests. Each of these postures require additional resources and also present a higher risk of Taliban retaliation, which will constrain their adoption. Finally, a new counterterrorism question is the extent to which the rising threat of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) affects U.S. interests. The TTP’s immediate threat to the United States is ambiguous, but there are plausible pathways by which it can metastasize into a future threat for U.S. interests. Should policymakers decide to contain it vigorously, they can step up capacity-building, intelligence-sharing, and targeting assistance to Pakistan. Of these options, intelligence-sharing may offer the most upside with manageable political and legal challenges, whereas capacity-building may prove ineffective and targeting assistance presents the risk of blowback against the United States.

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