The entire Pashtun belt in the tribal areas of Pakistan is up in arms against the recent civil-military decision to launch an all-out military operation against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group which launched a major offensive against security personnel last year. The group is patronised by the Afghan Taliban, a close ally of the Pakistan Army which has refused to help tame the militants targeting Pakistan.
People are worried that the army would repeat the same kill and burn operations it had conducted between 2007 and 2014, causing massive civilian casualty and displacement. Thousands of residents had to flee the area under heavy bombardment by fighter jets and artillery guns. Villages, towns, markets, schools and bridges were blown up by the Pakistan Army as it steamrolled against terrorist groups holed up in the area.
Even years after the operations, several thousand displaced families continue to suffer. Hundreds of families of the Kukikhel tribe of Tirah Valley, for instance, live in inhuman conditions in caves. Similarly, despite repeated promises, hundreds of displaced families living in the Bakakhel camp cannot return to their homes. Thousands remain stranded in Afghanistan. These are just a few of the incidents which make residents of the tribal border areas extremely wary of another round of military operations.
The public anger was stoked by the army’s ruthless suppression of the Pashtun demand for fair justice and rehabilitation after the military operation. Scores of young Pashtuns were abducted and tortured in secret prisons by the Pakistan Army. Many were never seen; several returned dead. Even more languish in prisons without any credible charges. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan,during its fact-finding mission in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in March this year, was alarmed by reports of continued restrictions on freedom of movement and speech, including widespread self-censorship….also troubled by continued reports of enforced disappearances, custodial deaths and persons going ‘missing’ from internment centres.
These fears had played large in the minds of people of the area when TTP began seeping into the mountainous villages and towns and the government, trapped in self-created perfect storm, dismissed widespread public fear. The army dubbed public outcry as malicious propaganda and chose to find more ways to talk to the militants than preventing them from gaining ground. It was these fears and government apathy that forced thousands to come out into the streets to highlight their plight in February this year. They wanted urgent action against TTP militants gathering strength and influence in their homeland.
The army’s indifference to their plea for help, they feared, was a deliberate ploy to recreate a terrorist crisis in the area to regain its influence in the state and benefit from the war economy as in the past. These fears gained strength as the army chose to remain in a propaganda mode as police stations and personnel were increasingly targeted by TTP leading to the massive suicide bombing of a Peshawar mosque killing over 100 persons.
As events unfolded in Pakistan, it became clear that the public fear of the government creating a terrorist problem in the region was not misplaced. Instead of saving the country and its people, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army chief Asim Munir considered Imran Khan a more urgent problem to deal with. A military operation was thought of as the only way out of the mess in which the ruling dispensation found itself trapped in.
But the operation could turn out to be a disastrous event given the public opposition. It could ironically benefit Imran Khan in the elections. Khan has little support among the Pashtuns in the tribal areas given his clear sympathies with the Taliban. He was even dubbed as the Taliban Khan. He was in support of a truce with TTP. Yet, a disastrous military operation in the election year could turn out to be to his advantage because neither the government nor the military have even thought of jettisoning the traditional terrorist policy and taking on groups like TTP with clear force and determination. The good and bad Taliban policy had failed in the past, and will not work now. Terrorism has to be rooted out completely. There is no half way out of this mess.
But neither Sharif nor Munir seem to be ready to take on the challenge. Their interest is short-term–one wants to win the next election and another wants to keep Imran Khan away from Islamabad, and Rawalpindi.
No military operation can be free of collateral damage and in difficult terrain and complex loyalties, it could cause heavy civilian damage There is already a seething anger in the Pashtun community. This anger against the army could boil over and cause mutinous revolt in the tribal areas and other Pashtun dominated areas in the country, a factor which could bolster terrorist groups like al Qaeda and ISIS to gain strength in the region and cause a civil war like situation in the border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The bloodshed and violence could, ironically, help Imran Khan to regain Islamabad and cause havoc in Rawalpindi, the one terrifying fear keeping the government and the army leadership united.