Frustrated with non-cooperation from Afghanistan’s rulers in fighting the rampaging Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Pakistan plans to attack the latter’s hideouts across the border, a Pakistani newspaper has said, of a likely move that spells serious border trouble.
A civil-military Pakistani delegation returned from Kabul last week with assurances and sets of proposals, but nothing concrete. Islamabad could unleash “Plan B”, Kamran Yousaf, a senior foreign affairs correspondent at The Express Tribune wrote (February 27, 2023).
It says Pakistan no longer wants to talk to the TTP militants, estimated at 8,000 to 12,000 – their families adding up to 30,000. They are operating from the borderland where Pashtuns live on both sides. Instead, it wants Kabul to evict them, to which the latter has refused.
Kamran Yousaf writes: “While there is a push to seek the resolution of the TTP issues through appropriate channels, Pakistan is also working on a contingency plan. The sense is that Pakistan is preparing for the worst. In case the Afghan Taliban fail to address our concerns, there is a possibility of cross-border strikes targeting the TTP sanctuaries. Pakistan did carry out such strikes once in last April to put pressure on the Afghan Taliban, though it never publicly owned those raids. This may be the policy going forward — targeting the TTP hideouts across the border without publicly acknowledging it.”
Yousaf has not indicated the timing of when the plan could be launched. Nor does his commentary on the editorial page cite sources in or outside the government.
But Islamabad could use this option soon enough given frequent violent attacks, not just across the border but also in the heartland. Besides border posts, the TTP fighters have daringly attacked police and even military establishments. Nearly 400 men in uniform have died in eliminating the attackers and regaining control. The TTP stepped up attacks since it unilaterally ended a ceasefire last November.
Recurring violence spells domestic trouble for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s fledgling coalition government. Militant bodies and Islamist parties agitate in tandem to protest the rising prices of essential commodities. The Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), a hardline Sunni group, forcibly closed Lahore markets last Saturday, while the Jamaat-e-Islami gave a similar protest call.
The government is already fighting a serious economic crisis of depleting foreign exchange reserves, down to USD two billion. Desperate efforts for an economic bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have partially spurred a 33 per cent inflation. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, demanding early elections, is also trying to cash in.
“Plan B” carries more than one international angle. Yousaf says Kabul agreed to ‘relocate’ the hideouts of not just the TTP militants, but also Uyghurs, the Chinese nationals from Xinjiang belonging to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), estimated at 3,000. However, Kabul would like Pakistan and China to bear the cost of moving the militants away from the respective borders. Both have so far rejected the idea and are trying to lean on the Afghan Taliban.
Pakistan’s TTP trouble spells the failure of its Afghanistan policy. The Afghan Taliban that it hosted for two decades and facilitated their regaining Kabul are unwilling to evict their ideological brothers and want to use them as leverage against Islamabad. They also have domestic trouble battling the extremist Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP). Yet to be recognised by any nation, the Kabul rulers would like to use the militant groups’ presence as a bargain to end global isolation.
If Pakistan unveils Plan B, it could be only with a nod from the United States. The Biden administration has repeatedly assured it of “solidarity and support” in fighting ‘terrorism’ that in the current context, is TTP for Pakistan and ISKP for the US. Having evacuated from Afghanistan in August 2021, the US would like a return to it, if only to ‘contain’ China in the latter’s backyard.
Any confrontation on the Af-Pak border that has already witnessed skirmishes would surely mean bigger tensions and frequent closure of access to a landlocked Afghanistan. For Pakistan, it means more Afghan refugees, more displacement of its own people, and greater militancy and violence. And for the world, a renewed conflict zone.