Overview of Pakistan’s Nuclear Forces
According to SIPRI estimates, as of January 2024, Pakistan possessed approximately 170 nuclear warheads, the same number as the previous year. These warheads are assigned to Pakistan’s developing atomic triad, which includes aircraft, ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, and sea-launched cruise missiles. Ongoing development of new delivery systems and an increasing stockpile of fissile material suggest Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is likely to expand over the next decade, though projections vary.
The Pakistani government has not publicly disclosed the size of its nuclear arsenal, and the analysis of the number and types of Pakistani warheads and delivery vehicles is challenging due to limited official data and exaggerated news stories. SIPRI’s estimates are based on various sources, including Pakistan’s nuclear posture, fissile material production, commercial satellite imagery, public statements by Western officials, and private conversations with Pakistani officials.
Role of Nuclear Weapons in Pakistani Military Doctrine
Pakistan does not adhere to a no-first-use (NFU) policy and reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first in wartime, primarily due to perceived asymmetry in conventional forces compared to India. In response to India’s ‘Cold Start’ doctrine, Pakistan has emphasized non-strategic nuclear weapons as part of its ‘full spectrum deterrence posture,’ which includes strategic, operational, and tactical nuclear weapons with various yields targeting a wide range of objectives in India.
Air-Delivered Weapons
As of January 2024, Pakistan was estimated to have a small stockpile of nuclear gravity bombs, with cruise missiles in development. The Ra’ad (Hatf-8) air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) is being developed to provide the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) with a nuclear-capable stand-off capability. Pakistan operates several types of combat aircraft suitable for nuclear delivery, including the Mirage III, Mirage V, F-16, and JF-17, though their nuclear roles are not officially confirmed. The Mirage III is likely used for test flights of the Ra’ad ALCM, and the Mirage V is believed to have a strike role with nuclear gravity bombs. Future integration of the Ra’ad ALCM with the JF-17 is possible.
Land-Based Missiles
Pakistan’s nuclear-capable land-based missile arsenal, as of January 2024, included an estimated 126 short- and medium-range systems. This arsenal comprises solid-fuelled, road-mobile short-range ballistic missiles (Abdali, Ghaznavi, Shaheen-I/IA, and Nasr) and medium-range ballistic missiles (Ghauri and Shaheen-II). The longer-range Shaheen-III, with a claimed range of 2750 km, is in development. The Ababeel, a medium-range ballistic missile capable of delivering multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), is also being developed.
Sea-Based Missiles
In its pursuit of a secure second-strike capability, Pakistan is developing a sea-based nuclear force. The Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) aims to establish a nuclear capability for the Pakistan Navy’s Agosta-90B diesel-electric submarines. The Babur-3 was test-launched in 2017 and 2018.
Overall, the expansion of Pakistan’s nuclear forces and the development of new delivery systems indicate a robust effort to enhance its deterrence capabilities amid regional tensions.
June 17, 2024
Source: SIPRI