Well-known US expert on Pakistan, Dr. Marvin G. Weinbaum ,the director of the Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies Program at the Middle East Institute and Mr Naad-e-Ali Sulehria, analyses Pakistan’s new government under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, highlighting the military’s role and potential challenges.
Key Points:
Military Influence: Shehbaz Sharif’s appointment as PM is seen as the military’s way to maintain control while avoiding conflict with his brother Nawaz. This is evident in Shehbaz’s early actions, including a visit to military headquarters and proposed military budget increase.
External Approval: The new government has received support from external players like Saudi Arabia, UAE, China, and the US, boosting its legitimacy. China seems willing to continue CPEC investment, while the US seeks collaboration on climate change and economic partnership.
Potential for Longevity: With the military seemingly content and talks with the IMF progressing, the government might enjoy a long tenure. However, internal conflicts loom.
Challenges for the Coalition: Balancing demands from diverse coalition parties, particularly regarding resource allocation, will be difficult. The promised military budget increase contradicts the need for fiscal reforms demanded by the IMF, potentially straining ties with some parties.
Military Budget vs. Provincial Needs: The prioritization of military spending over provincial needs could be a bigger threat to the government’s stability than external forces.
The analysis suggests that while the new government appears stable with external support, internal conflicts related to resource distribution and military spending could lead to future instability.
March 30,2024
Source: Middle East Institute