Several uncertainties mark Pakistan as it gears up for its 12th general elections, the most pervasive being who will eventually become the next Prime Minister–Nawaz Sharif, or his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif or Bilawal Bhutto or an entirely new incumbent. How will the young vote? Will any party get enough votes to form an independent government?
Parallel to these uncertain tidings, there are scores of certainties which tell the real story of Pakistan and how the February 8 election could turn out to be just yet another blind twist in a prolonged period of polycrises.
Certainty 1–Whichever way the elections go, the results managed or engineered, the next government in Pakistan will be hybrid–it will be a civilian front with the military working the ropes. The role of the army during the elections, in the counting and in the results will remain intrusive and unchallenged. The next premier, therefore, will have to carry the approval of the army, even if it were to be Nawaz Sharif. The arrangement, however, will not stay forever.
Certainty 2 –The economy will be in doldrums and its reins will firmly be with the army. The Prime Minister will have little freedom to effect major economic restructuring to pull out the sinking economy. The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), which is taking all key economic decisions, will retain its prominence. The council is a hybrid arrangement with key leadership positions managed by the army leadership with the Chief of Army Staff holding all the cards. In short, the army will use the premier to interfere in areas in which it has no role or expertise. The army’s muddling in economic matters is one of the key reasons for the country’s economic woes.
Certainty 3 — The country will remain divided over civil rights, ethnic justice and religious freedom. The shameful manner in which former Prime Minister Imran Khan is being treated by the army and its cohorting institutions including judiciary will have a profound impact on the army’s reputation among the people. The Baloch anger and simmering discontent among the Pakhtuns and people of Gilgit Baltistan against the establishment are likely to be inflamed after the elections.
Certainty 4- The Pakistan Army has failed to stem the burgeoning tide of terrorism on its western borders. This failure has boosted the ranks and morale of Afghan-based terrorist groups as well as militant groups in Balochistan. The recent seizure of Mach town in Balochistan is a case in point. The arc of terrorism will only expand in the months to come with the Afghanistan Taliban regime unwilling to cooperate. Many of these groups are planning to work out a cooperative mechanism to attack Pakistan and its security forces.
Certainty 5–The army’s colossal failures on foreign policy are likely to exacerbate. The recent dangerous skirmish with the Iranian military exposes how fragile the relationship between two Islamic countries are, despite scores of personal visits by military functionaries and an attempt by China to work out a trilateral cooperative mechanism to deal with terrorism. General Asim Munir’s recent threats to Afghanistan and dismissal of any rapprochement with India expose an immature policy rather than a well crafted, creative approach to deal with two of the most significant foreign policy challenges of Pakistan. The tango between US and China will turn more weird as Pakistan will remain stuck between the two competing super powers.
Certainty 6 — The elections are not going to trigger any changes that can rescue over 240 million people battling multiple crises in their everyday life, as long as the army is in the driver’s seat.