Three-time Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif’s return to try for a fourth tenure, on the shoulders of the Pakistan Army, could result in an ignominious end to his illustrious career and decimation of his once-powerful party, Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN).
This assessment is made on the basis of known facts and events involving the army, Nawaz Sharif and other political parties and leaders.
It is well known that Nawaz Sharif, who was working in his father’s steel mill, was handpicked by the army’s scouts to counter the challenge of the influential mainstream political party, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and its young charismatic leader, Benazir Bhutto. His rise in politics, thanks largely to the army in the initial stages, was phenomenal. He became a popular leader and managed to become the Prime Minister on three occasions despite serious skirmishes with the army leadership.
Along the way, Sharif had lost his patronage in the army. His open confrontation with General Pervez Musharraf and the subsequent coup made him a liability in the eyes of the army. Musharraf had set in the plan to weaken his political party. The plan came into action during the army leadership of General Ashfaq Kayani, General Raheel Sharif and General Qamar Javed Bajwa.
His views on India and the army’s role in the Mumbai attacks had incensed the army leadership further. It was during General Sharif’s tenure that a well-crafted plan to oust him and replace him with the cricketer Imran Khan was put into place. When Bajwa took over the Chief of Army Staff, Sharif was ousted from Islamabad first on corruption charges in the Panama Papers Case and then exiled.
The same army is now bringing him back to set in motion the second part of their plan–to decimate PMLN, shame Sharif further and create a sequence of the hybrid regime which they had experimented with Imran Khan and partly failed. The army has no great admiration for Sharif, given the troublesome relationship with him and his party. Sharif has been allowed to come on the understanding that the army could try and get him seats in Punjab and other provinces in exchange for acceptance of the army’s suzerainty.
Sharif clearly knows that he is returning to a vastly different Pakistan, and Punjab. Neither himself nor his party are as popular as it was in 2017. Imran Khan remains, despite being in prison, the most popular leader across the country today. Even in Punjab, Khan’s successes have been a shock to PMLN. Sharif’s welcome rally in Lahore had sizeable size but had no soul. It was a well managed political show. There was no popular wave. Not like the kind of rave when Benazir Bhutto had returned in 2017. Not like how people reacted when Imran Khan was first jailed. It was a big but tepid affair.
Sharif may have signed up with Rawalpindi but can never be sure what the Generals are going to deliver at the time of elections. The army,however, is quite clear. It will not allow Nawaz Sharif back in Islamabad as the Prime Minister. There is too much bad blood between them. There is no trust. Neither does Sharif trust the Generals and nor does the Generals trust the PMLN chief.
The Generals in fact have a better working relationship with the younger Sharif. Shehbaz Sharif till recently was the Prime Minister of the stop-gap government after Imran Khan was ousted. He has been close to the army during his long Chief Ministership of Punjab. He has rarely, if at all, spoken against the army even in private. In fact, he was the first choice of the army but for his father who wanted a better position for the elder son. The Generals would still plumb for him as the premier if things can be worked out.
Of the several aspects of the elections still unclear, some of the army’s objectives are becoming apparent as days go by. One, there will be no Imran Khan. Two, it will be a hybrid regime in Islamabad this time around. And three, there will be no Nawaz Sharif.
Then why has the army allowed Nawaz Sharif to come in? The answer is not difficult to see. The cases of corruption lined up against are temporarily suspended which means all of them, along with others, can be easily revived to lock him up like Imran Khan. Sharif’s chances of victory depend largely on how the army manages the elections. If he loses, it will mean his final shame at the hands of the army which wanted to punish him for daring to challenge its authority during his regime. In his loss, the army will finally rearrange PMLN, quite like PPP with the demise of Benazir Bhutto. New political parties, old leaders under new flags and new slogans will populate Islamabad in the coming years. Sharif’s return to Lahore is highly unlikely to put him on the road to Islamabad.