Pakistan’s influence is on the rise, highlighted by the recent visit of US Acting Under Secretary for Political Affairs John Bass to Islamabad. Analysts suggest that this visit could signify a significant shift in regional dynamics, with far-reaching implications extending to the Middle East.
The visit by Bass, a former US ambassador to Afghanistan, indicates a pivotal moment in US-Pakistan relations. Islamabad appears poised to be courted by Washington on various fronts, from its strategic position amid tensions between Iran and Israel to potential energy deals and the Afghan refugee issue.
Nausheen Wasi, an international relations academic at Karachi University, views Bass’ two-day trip as highly significant, given its timing and the multiple contexts involved.
According to a statement from Pakistan’s foreign office, Bass’s visit involved productive discussions on all aspects of bilateral relations. This occurred following a visit to Islamabad by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi a week earlier, which coincided with heightened regional tensions following Iran’s direct attack on Israel and subsequent retaliatory strikes.
As a neighbor of Iran, Pakistan stands out as the sole “trusted ally to the US” in the region, potentially playing a crucial role in de-escalating tensions. This underscores Pakistan’s enhanced strategic significance, particularly amidst evolving regional dynamics.
One key issue discussed during Raisi’s visit was the completion of a cross-border gas pipeline between Pakistan and Iran, a project first proposed in the early 1990s. However, concerns about potential US sanctions have stalled Pakistan’s construction efforts, despite Iran completing its segment of the pipeline.
With Pakistan grappling with energy deficits and seeking to diversify its energy sources, the completion of this pipeline holds significant economic importance. However, the specter of US sanctions targeting Iranian imports poses a formidable challenge for Pakistan.
Observers suggest that Bass’s visit may signal US interest in exploring alternative energy sources for Pakistan, potentially influencing discussions on economic cooperation between the two countries.
Another pressing issue likely discussed during Bass’s visit is the situation of Afghan refugees in Pakistan. Following the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021, Pakistan initiated the repatriation of Afghan refugees, amidst concerns about the security risks posed by their presence.
The repatriation issue remains contentious, especially in light of ongoing security challenges in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s concerns about anti-Pakistan terrorist sanctuaries in Afghanistan are likely to feature prominently in discussions with the US.
Given the US’s emphasis on stability in Afghanistan and the broader region, active diplomatic efforts are underway to address the situation. Analysts view this as an opportunity for Pakistan to engage constructively with Afghanistan, potentially fostering stability through trade and educational exchanges.
Pakistan’s growing geopolitical importance is evident in the flurry of high-profile visits by its leaders, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent visits to Saudi Arabia and the military chief’s official trip to China. These developments underscore the US’s recognition of Pakistan’s role in regional affairs and the need for constructive engagement moving forward.
May 3, 2024
Source: South China Morning Post